一篇ARGUE 求拍 看看能得几分
一篇ARGUE 大家给点意见 看看能得几分
Argument 147
The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
In this editorial, the author argues that the sales of Whirlwind (W) video games will increase dramatically in the next few months. To bolster this argument the author of this editorial cites that W held an advertising campaign to introduce their video games which have the most important feature of a video game-lifelike graphics. However, careful examination of this support evidence reveals that it lends little credibility to the argument.
First of all, questionable is the claim that all at least most of the players treat lifelike graphics as the vital feature of a video game. Lacking information about the size, randomness and representative of the survey’s sample, the author cannot make a convincing argument based on that survey. Besides, the editorial provides no information about what percentage of players thought lifelike graphics was the most important feature; the lower the percentages, the less reliable the results of the surveys. Without evidence of the survey’s reliability, it is impossible to draw any firm conclusion based on the survey.
In the second place, even if the result of survey that lifelike graphics is most significant feature of video games is reliability, the author assumes too hastily that players who like W’s video games are likely to buy them. The author has not shown any correlation, let alone a cause-and-effect relationship between favors and purchase. On one hand, perhaps the video games W sells is too expensive to the 10 to 25 years old most of who do not have incomes. On the other hand, an excellent video game relates to many factors such as story-line, character-design, music and sound effects. The lifelike graphics is important but not the only aspect to consider. Absent clear information, the author’s conclusion is simply unjustified.
Last but not the least, granted that the author justifies all the foregoing assumption, the author unfairly concludes that the extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old will have an immediate effect on increasing the sales. Logic and common sense inform me that the sales might be due to instead one to more other factors. It is entirely possible that other video game companies also have such game which are much attractive and have much lower prices. If true, this scenario would cast considerable doubt on the argument’s assertion.
In sum, the argument relies on certain doubtful assumptions that render it unconvincing as it stands. To better evaluate it the author must firm the reliability of the survey about the most important feature of a video game. And I would also need more compelling information about the lifelike graphics feature the W’s games have and the advertising campaign can really boost the sales.
[ 本帖最后由 xuebijiakele 于 2008-7-29 19:10 编辑 ]
